Modals of Deduction/ Speculation – Present and Past

We use certain modal verbs to speculate about events in the past and present. These include:

  • Should – He should be at home now (this is what we expect to be true)

For negatives we add not, which is usually contracted. For example:

  • He mustn’t be at home. 
  • He mightn’t be at work. 

However, we cannot contract may and not, as it is more formal. For example:

  • He mayn’t be at work yet.
  • He may not be at work yet.

This form is much less common, it is more formal and also, ‘may not’ is more commonly used for a lack of permission. For example:

  • You may not enter this area. 

When we use could and not, it has the same meaning as can’t, we are sure that something is not true. For example:

  • He can’t be in London; I saw him earlier. 
  • He couldn’t be in London; I saw him earlier. 

Past Modals Verbs of Deduction

When we speculate about things in the past, we use a slightly different structure:

Past modals form

Subject + modal (not) + have + 3rd form

The chart below outlines modal verbs of deduction and speculation in the present and past. 

You will notice that the verbs retain the seem meaning, with two exceptions:

  • Couldn’t have = it is almost impossible that something happened. (can’t have)

“John couldn’t have broken the computer; he was with me.”

  • Shouldn’t have = for criticising someone’s past actions, or expressing regret about our own actions. 

“You shouldn’t have said that but I should have warned you.”

NOTE – this is an extra meaning, as we can use “should have” to express about an expectation about a past event. This is more common in a positive than negative sentence. For example:

  • He should have arrived by now; I hope everything is okay.


Other Important Point about Modals of Deduction

Using Must not (mustn’t) for a negative deduction. 

Technically, we are not supposed to use mustn’t when certain something is untrue. However, it is commonly used. We should use can’t/ couldn’t for negative certainties. For example:

  • It mustn’t be his car then. Instead – It couldn’t be his car. 
  • He mustn’t enjoy doing it. Instead – He can’t enjoy doing it. 

2. Using contractions, particularly with Past Modals. 

Contractions are very common with modal verbs. In the Present Form we contract for negatives. For example:

  • He mustn’t like his job. 
  • The children mightn’t like pasta. 

When we are using Past Modals, it is very common to contract the modal and have:

  • It could’ve been his brother that you saw. 
  • The meal can’t have cost that much money. 

When using negatives, we may might contract both the have and the not in a negative sentence when speaking. But we cannot write it this way. For example:

  • He couldn’t’ve known that. (How it sounds)
  • He couldn’t have known that. (How it is written)

3. Have, can sound like of!

When we contract the have in a positive sentence (or a negative when speaking), the ‘ve can sound like ‘of’. It is a common mistake in writing. 

4. Using modal + be + verb-ing

If we are talking about actions happening now, or longer actions, we might use ‘be-verb-ing’, as we do in Present and Past Continuous. For example:

  • Their plane should be landing around now. 
  • He might be trying to eat more healthily. 
  • He could have been trying to help. 



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